So, about a month ago, my friend Shaun texted me Ron Jaworski's list of the top 30 QBs in football with the missive: Discuss. This triggered two parts of my personality: (1) I don't turn down intellectual challenges, and (2) Unless given a deadline, I procrastinate. So here we are, a month later, and I'm finally ready to take this on. For reference, here is Jaworski's list:
30. Tim Tebow, Jets
29. Blaine Gabbert, Jags
28. Christian Ponder, Vikings
27. Matt Flynn, Seahawks
26. Matt Moore, Dolphins
25. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
23. Mark Sanchez, Jets
22. Matt Cassel, Chiefs
21. Carson Palmer, Raiders
20. Sam Bradford, Rams
19. Andy Dalton, Bengals
18. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans
17. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
16. Alex Smith, 49ers
15. Cam Newton, Panthers
14. Matthew Stafford, Lions
13. Matt Schaub, Texans
12. Michael Vick, Eagles
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys
9. Joe Flacco, Ravens
8. Jay Cutler, Bears
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers
6. Ben Rothlisberger, Steelers
5. Eli Manning, Giants
4. Peyton Manning, Broncos
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Drew Brees, Saints
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Instead of just giving my rankings, I'm going to give five guys I think are overrated by Jaws, five guys I think he underrates, and then rank the 30 non-rookie starting QB's. This both seems more complete, and gets me out of talking about Tim Tebow. As a Jet fan, I think this is best for all involved.
Overrated (rank in parentheses):
1. Peyton Manning. I understand why you would want to rank Peyton highly; I don't know if I'm comfortable living in a world where Peyton Manning, owner or soon-to-be owner of multiple QB records, is ranked higher than Eli Manning, who will likely end his career without any NFL records. For the record, that's not a knock on Eli, who has outgrown his "Rex Grossman with better luck" phase and turned into a legit franchise QB who will not find himself on the overrated list. But the Top 30 list isn't a lifetime achievement award, it involves future performance, and Peyton has had four more neck surgeries in the past year than he's thrown touchdowns. Plus, he's got all new personnel, which is a downgrade from what he had. For that, he's out of the top 5.
2. Jay Cutler. I originally didn't have Cutler on this list, but after writing the Romo section, he needed to be on this list. There is no reason to think Jay Cutler is a top 10 quarterback. His completion percentage has declined every year since he became a starter. He's got a nasty habit of throwing a LOT of interceptions. He's been pretty average ever since he got to Chicago. There is no way I would choose Cutler over Romo if I had to win a football game tomorrow.
3. Joe Flacco. Flacco is an average-to-above-average NFL QB, not a top 10 guy. He doesn't pass the numbers test. While he did throw for 3,600 yards last season, he had fewer yards last year than in 2010 and needed 53 more attempts to do it. His touchdowns were down, and his interceptions up from the previous year. But what really gets me is the sight test. Watching him last season, it always seemed like Ray Rice was options 1 through 3. There didn't seem to be any impetus to get the ball down the field. That's not a top 10 guy in my mind.
4. Alex Smith. This is too much stock being put into one year. Yes, Smith had the best year of his career last season. When your previous best is under 2900 yards and a 18-12 TD/INT ratio, this is surprisingly easy to do. Especially when they put training wheels on your playbook and rely on your defense to win games. Shut down Vernon Davis, and you'll shut down their passing attack; he's the go-to (even if Crabtree had more catches, he was never dominant). Maybe Smith will figure it out, but I'm not ranking him in the top half until I see it again.
5. Carson Palmer. I have no idea, I really don't. Carson Palmer WAS one of the best QB's in football. In 2007-08. However, after his injury, Carson was not the same guy. He's always been a shade prone to interceptions, but the playmaking ability that made the interceptions palatable isn't there anymore. His completion percentage is down two percent last year from his career average, and while his YPA was the highest it had ever been, some of that is probably attributable to the track team that the Raiders call a receiving corps. The skill set just isn't there anymore.
Underrated:
1. Ben Roethlisberger. I do not relish writing that, both because spelling his name is a chore and because he's been a pretty despicable human being. But there's not a guy in the league who does more with less than Big Ben. The receiving corps, aside from Mike Wallace, has been pretty pedestrian. It's not like he had a security blanket of any sort: Mendenhall isn't known for receiving well, and Miller is a league-average tight end at best. His offensive line has been nothing short of awful for the past few years. Nevertheless, he's worked with all of it, extended plays with his legs, and has learned to make the smart throw more often than not. A top 5 guy by any metric.
2. Tony Romo. Yes, he will make the occasional unconscionable decision, and doesn't have a great playoff record, but he deserves better than 10th. He outperformed that 10th ranking in basically every stat: QB Rating, Completion %, Yards, TDs, YPA (among guys with 10 or more starts). If this was done by blind resume, he would have been in the conversation for top 5. As it is, he's as underranked as anyone on this list.
3. Matthew Stafford. I'm aware that in the Alex Smith section, I said not to base too much off of one year. However, Smith didn't have the injury excuse, he was just the player that he was. I know that a lot of credit is due to Calvin Johnson, but even if you take his numbers out, Stafford threw for more than 3300 yards and 25 touchdowns, which is better than Michael Vick's numbers from last year. That kind of talent, even in a small sample, cannot be denied.
4. Mark Sanchez. Full disclosure: I'm a Jet fan. This cuts both ways, as I will defend Mark Sanchez against attacks from others, while cursing his name in private. But to be ranked 23rd is too much. He's improved in every way every year of his career: more passes, more yards, more touchdowns, and even a higher completion percentage. Further, he's got plenty of room to improve, which cannot be said of some of the people ahead of him.
5. Matt Moore. Matt Moore gets a bit of a bad rap, but in terms of the clear lower-tier QBs, I'd rather have him than any of the others. He's made an otherwise bad Miami team much more competitive than they otherwise would be. He doesn't have any elite skills, but he makes the most of what he has, and has shown improvement when he's gotten the opportunity. Too bad the organization's love for Ryan Tannehill is going to slam his window shut.
Without further ado, my overall rankings (starting at the bottom)
30. Blaine Gabbert
29. Christian Ponder
28. Matt Flynn
27. Colt McCoy
26. Kevin Kolb
25. Matt Cassel
24. Carson Palmer
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick
22. Matt Moore
21. Alex Smith
20. Sam Bradford
19. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Mark Sanchez
17. Josh Freeman
16. Andy Dalton
15. Cam Newton
14. Jay Cutler
13. Michael Vick
12. Matt Schaub
11. Joe Flacco
10. Matt Ryan
9. Matthew Stafford
8. Peyton Manning
7. Philip Rivers
6. Tony Romo
5. Eli Manning
4. Ben Roethlisberger
3. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
1. Aaron Rodgers
If you disagree, which I'm sure you do, let me know in the comments.
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