Before the beginning of last season, as those of us who blog are wont to do, I made a set of NHL predictions. This was on my old blog (viewfromrightfield.blogspot.com). Today, I embark on another cliche of online blogging, especially for those without any ideas: revisiting my picks and seeing how they did. As a way of organizing this, I ask whether my pick deserves a cookie, or whether I need to eat crow. Without further ado, and in alphabetical order, my 2011 picks.
Anaheim Ducks
What I thought: 6th in the West.
Why I thought it: I figured that, despite the depth problems, the skill of the top line and a healthy Hiller would be enough to give them a playoff spot
How they did: 13th in the West, 80 points. This team didn't score well, ending up 23rd in goals scored and didnt goaltend well, ending up 22nd in SV%, and didn't play defense well, coming in 18th in goals allowed.
Cookie or Crow: Crow. In retrospect, I should have seen this coming. They have one line that plays at an elite level, and that's just not enough to compete.
Boston Bruins:
What I thought: 2nd in the East.
Why I thought it: They returned the entire core of the previous season's Cup winner. That tends to be a good strategy for continuing success.
How they did: 2nd in the East, 102 points. Good across the board, 2nd in goals scored and 7th in goals against. Unfortunately for them, they ran into a hot goalie in the playoffs.
Cookie or Crow: A Hydrox. Oreos are for those who make bolder predictions than the defending champs being good again.
Buffalo Sabres
What I thought: 7th in the East.
Why I thought it: The team could score before the signings, and I figured the additions could only help. Plus they had Ryan Miller, as good a big-game goalie as there was in the league. Add a generally weak division to the mix, and you had the recipe for a playoff team.
How they did: 9th in the East, 89 points. The offense and defense were slightly below average, and Miller was solid rather than spectacular. Not exactly the recipe for playoff success.
Cookie or Crow: Neither. I predicted them for the playoffs, and they didn't make it, but this was a 90 point team that was in contention for the playoffs into the final week: pretty much exactly the team I thought they were.
Calgary Flames
What I thought: 12th in the West.
Why I thought it: They had Iginla and Kiprusoff, but not much else.
How they did: 9th in the West, 90 points. Above average goalkeeping, 13th in goals allowed, but no offense to speak of outside of Iginla and the surprising Olli Jokinen.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. While the finish was better than I thought, they were a cut below the playoff teams, and were only two points away from finishing 11th. As predicted, the lack of depth was their undoing.
Carolina Hurricanes
What I thought: 9th in the East.
Why I thought it: They were a young team that would improve on the previous year, and solid goaltending would make up for whatever holes they had.
How they did: 12th in the East, 82 points. A disastrous November sunk the Canes season before it began, and Ward was nothing short of awful.
Cookie or Crow: Crow. I figured they wouldn't be good enough to make the playoffs, but I did not see a team backstopped by Cam Ward in the bottom 10 in the league in GAA.
Chicago Blackhawks
What I thought: 5th in the West.
Why I thought it: The team clearly had tons of offense, and I assumed that Crawford would provide just enough goaltending to put them comfortably in the playoffs, but below the elite teams.
How they did: 6th in the West, 101 points. Crawford's goaltending was barely adequate, with he and Ray Emery combining for the 23rd GAA and 28th SV%. Luckily for the Blackhawk faithful, the team had a top 5 offense despite losing Toews for nearly a quarter of the season.
Cookie or Crow: Thin Mint. Hit this one basically right on the head.
Colorado Avalanche
What I thought: 13th in the West
Why I thought it: The centers could provide scoring, but the rest of the team was generally mediocre, and they wouldn't make any sort of serious playoff push.
How they did: 11th in the West, 88 points. The offense, outside of Ryan O'Reilly, Paul Stasny, and Gabriel Landeskog, was actively bad. However, surprisingly good goaltending (12th in GAA) kept them around longer than anyone expected.
Cookie or Crow: Neither. They were as good as I thought, but for an entirely different reason. Nobody predicted fewer than 30 points for Duchesne, and nobody predicted that the two-headed Giguere/Varly monster would actually make this team competitive.
Columbus Blue Jackets
What I thought: 7th in the West.
Why I thought it: Finally, they had brought in a decent supporting cast for Rick Nash. An elite player with solid depth around him and some emerging young players would totally make up for any issues they had in goal.
How they did: 15th in the West, 65 points (9 fewer than any other team). Outside of Nash, the scoring was atrocious, and the goaltending was very near the worst in the league.
Cookie or Crow: Imagine a turducken, but if all the birds were crows. I made some atrocious picks, but this is BY FAR the worst of them all.
Dallas Stars
What I thought: 12th in the West.
Why I thought it: The team was full of playmakers, but lacking in depth, especially among goalscorers. In that division, which I figured would be pretty good, that wasn't going to cut it.
How they did: 11th in the West, 89 points. League-average goaltending, and scoring that got ugly in a hurry (23 point differential between the 4th and 5th highest scorers on the team).
Cookie or Crow: Tagalong (my favorite Girl Scout cookie). Hit this one right on the head, and for the correct reasons.
Detroit Red Wings
What I thought: 1st in the West.
Why I thought it: Howard was bound to improve on the previous season, and the offense would be able to carry the organization to yet another conference title.
How they did: 5th in the West, 102 points. Howard did indeed improve, and the offense was good, but they played in one of the top two divisions in the NHL. I consider them to be more impressive than the Canucks by far.
Cookie or Crow: Small 100-calorie pack cookie. No great feat to predict that Detroit would be good, but at least I wasn't wrong.
Edmonton Oilers
What I thought: 14th in West
Why I thought it: Very good young scorers, but with an emphasis on young. Nobody on this team could play defense, and the goaltending was suspect at best.
How they did: 14th in the West, 74 points. Some real highlights for the team this season, but injuries to Hall and Nugent-Hopkins took their toll. Oh yea, and they can't play defense.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. I don't know who makes the decisions in Edmonton, but they really need to figure out that half the game is stopping the other team from scoring, and given the teams that made the conference finals, it looks like the more important half.
Florida Panthers
What I thought: 14th in East.
Why I thought it: They were bringing in a ton of new players and a new system, and I figured they wouldn't gel immediately. Plus, Jose Three-or-More was between the pipes, which hasn't been a recipe for success for the better part of the last decade.
How they did: 3rd in the East, 94 points. I'm still not entirely sure how this happened. They had league average goaltending, and one of the 5 worst offenses in the league. Yet they managed to make the playoffs, and nearly took down the Devils in the first round.
Cookie or Crow: Crow on a crostini, amuse-bouche style. I think it's pretty fair to say nobody saw this coming. The Panthers were the beneficiaries of a division that was WAY worse than anyone thought, and would have been the 6 seed if not for the bizarre, archaic playoff seeding rules.
Los Angeles Kings
What I thought: 3rd in the West.
Why I thought it: Quick had been stellar and would only improve, and Richards would be there to provide leadership and take the burden off of Kopitar.
How they did: Your 2011-12 Stanley Cup Champions. They rode solid defense and an unbelievably hot goaltender through the 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the West, then took the Devils out in 5 to win it.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie! I'm proud to say that I was higher than most on the Kings, and while the story didn't play out as I predicted, the results were undeniable.
Minnesota Wild
What I thought: 10th in the West
Why I thought it: Lack of balance. They had picked up Setoguchi and Heatley from the Sharks to boost their offense, but they had way too many question marks and projects on D to seriously contend for the playoffs.
How they did: 12th in the West, 81 points. Surprisingly good defense, with their goaltenders posting above average numbers in both GAA and SV%, but the loss of Koivu for a solid chunk of the season left the Wild with the worst offense in the league.
Cookie or Crow: Neither. Solid job with the prediction, WAY off on the reasons for it.
Montreal Canadiens
What I thought: 8th in the East.
Why I thought it: Carey Price had been carrying a team that always seemed to score JUST enough to win games. No reason to believe it wouldn't continue, especially after adding Erik Cole in the offseason.
How they did: 15th in the East, 78 points. Goalkeeping was as expected, posting a GAA and SV% just outside the top 10, but were 20th in goals allowed and sported an equally below average offense.
Cookie or Crow: Crow. I had way too much faith in this team. Last season goes to show just how good Price has to be on a daily basis, because this team can't score, and really lacks depth on defense.
Nashville Predators
What I thought: 9th in the West.
Why I thought it: The goaltending was great, as always, and the defense was stalwart, but I just couldn't see how they were going to score enough to make the playoffs in a packed Western Conference.
How they did: 4th in the West, 104 points. Like being eaten by a pack of piranhas, no individual offensive player did a ton of damage, but the whole team combined for 8th in goals for. Add stellar goaltending and a top 10 defense, and this was one hell of a team.
Cookie or Crow: A double crow-burger. I shall never doubt the system again (at least till I make next year's picks).
New Jersey Devils
What I thought: 12th in the East
Why I thought it: This looked to be a very top-heavy team, which wouldn't give you much scoring beyond Parise, Kovy, Elias, and Zajac. Brodeur was getting older, and no defensive player really stood out.
How they did: 6th in the East, and the Eastern Conference Champions. This team was top-heavy, but ran
seven deep instead of four. An unexpected year from Clarkson, an impressive rookie campaign from Henrique, and a top 10 defense propelled them into the Stanley Cup Finals, where they ran into a purple and black buzzsaw.
Cookie or Crow: Crow Caesar salad with crow-tons. This team kinda came out of nowhere, but any team that is smart defensively and has an elite scorer or two should be taken pretty seriously.
New York Islanders
What I thought: 10th in the East.
Why I thought it: The Ice-landers, as always, had some great young pieces, but I figured they'd have neither the defense nor the goaltending to really compete.
How they did: 14th in the East, 79 points. The young guys were, on the whole, very good, but outside of them the offense couldn't score (bottom 5 in the league) and neither the defense nor the goaltending couldn't stop anyone (bottom 5 in goals allowed and sv%). Also, how did Neiderreiter score fewer points than DiPietro?
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. I had them pretty well pegged in terms of what they could do and what they couldn't, though they were worse at the bad things than I thought they'd be.
New York Rangers
What I thought: 5th in the East.
Why I thought it: The secondary scoring was going to be better, and Henrik is a star, but I figured there would be some growing pains with a young defensive corps. They were going to challenge for the Atlantic title, with their winning the division being entirely dependent on Crosby's health.
How they did: 1st in the East, 109 points. The defense was stalwart, giving up the 3rd fewest goals in the league, Hank finally broke through for a Vezina, and the offense was above-average.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. I predicted that a healthy Crosby would be the only thing standing in between the Rangers and a division crown, and so it was. Yea, they were better than I expected, especially on defense, but the call was worthy of a small cookie nonetheless.
Ottawa Senators
What I thought: 15th in the East.
Why I thought it: The goaltending would be solid, but there seemed to be no scoring aside from the top line. Way too much inexperience to go anywhere.
How they did: 8th in the East, 92 points. The defense was worse than I thought they would be, falling in the bottom 10 in goals allowed, but I did NOT see the quality of offense coming. Not only did they get stellar scoring from their top line, but 9 guys scored more than 10 goals, leading to a top 5 finish in goals scored.
Cookie or Crow: One very large crow pizza. Ottawa had a pretty incredible season, and its not like any of the statistical seasons they had were major flukes.
Philadelphia Flyers
What I thought: 6th in the East.
Why I thought it: The defense would be staunch, and Bryzgalov would go a long way towards solving the goaltending problem. The issue was that I didn't see where the scoring was going to come from after losing Richards and Carter in the offseason.
How they did: 6th in the East, 103 points. Bryzgalov was, shall we say, NOT the solution to the Flyers' defensive issues and neither was losing Chris Pronger for, effectively, the whole season. The offense, on the other hand, was a whole different story, tying for 2nd in the league behind unreal seasons from their top line of Giroux, Hartnell, and Jagr.
Cookie or Crow: Neither. While my prediction was dead on, I couldn't have been farther off on the reasons why.
Phoenix Coyotes
What I thought: 15th in the West.
Why I thought it: I thought Bryzgalov was the end-all, be-all. I figured that, with him gone, the team would fall apart from lack of scoring, and Mike Smith wouldn't be able to stand up for the whole season.
How they did: 3rd in the West, 97 points. The offense was, as I expected, below average, but the defense was a revelation, ending up top 5 in goals allowed, with Smith posting a 930 sv%.
Cookie or Crow: Four and twenty crows baked in a pie. While the Coyotes would have been 6th if not for the playoff seeding, they were still a very good team, one that I did not see coming.
Pittsburgh Penguins
What I thought: 3rd in the East.
Why I thought it: I knew they would be able to score, but it was a question of who would do the scoring. The injuries were a major concern, and players were going to miss time, which would keep them out of first but a division title was possible if Crosby stayed healthy.
How they did: 4th in the East, 108 points. The best offense in the league plus a league-average defense kept the Pens among the leagues best all season. But no Crosby meant no division title, as the Rangers beat them out by a single point for the top spot in the East.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. While this team wasn't particularly hard to figure out, putting them right behind the Rangers if Crosby couldn't stay healthy was one of my better calls.
San Jose Sharks
What I thought: 4th in the West.
Why I thought it: The top end scorers would fill the net, like they always do, and the defense would be good enough to get them into the playoffs.
How they did: 7th in the West, 97 points. The offense, especially for the Sharks, was kinda pedestrian, finishing just above league average, but the defense gave up the 8th fewest goals in the league, which was enough to keep them well clear of the end-of-season dogfight.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. The Sharks may not have been as good as they have in past years, but there wasn't any real doubt that they were a playoff team.
St. Louis Blues
What I thought: 8th in the West
Why I thought it: A very solid defense behind Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo, and better luck (they'd led in goals on 10% of their shots faced last season) would lead this team back into the playoffs.
How they did: The offense was pedestrian, with nobody topping 55 points. But oh that defense. After Ken Hitchcock took over midseason, the team gave up the fewest goals in the league, and the two-headed monster of Halak and Elliott led the league in GAA and SV%.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. While I (and everybody else) didn't predict exactly how good they'd be, a resurgence on defense was almost inevitable with that set of personnel.
Tampa Bay Lightning
What I thought: 4th in the East.
Why I thought it: The defense was going to be a problem, but this team was going to score in bunches, and that would be enough to get the Lightning into prime playoff seeding.
How they did: 10th in the East, 84 points. The offense was very good, ending up 8th in the league in goals behind Stamkos' 60, but the defense was downright putrid, giving up the most goals in the league.
Cookie or Crow: Chicken Crow-don Bleu. If you can't stop anybody, you won't win in the NHL. All the signs were on the wall that this team had problems, and I didn't see them.
Toronto Maple Leafs
What I thought: 11th in the East.
Why I thought it: This was a physical team, but one that seemed to be disciplined. However, they didn't seem to do any one thing particularly well, which would keep them out of the playoffs.
How they did: 13th in the East, 80 points. The offense was much better than expected, finishing 10th paced by Lupul and Kessel, but the defense couldn't stop anyone, ending up second to last in the league in goals allowed.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. You need some sort of elite skill to make the playoffs, and they didn't seem to have any of them.
Vancouver Canucks
What I thought: 2nd in the West.
Why I thought it: The Canucks can score with any team in the league, and Luongo, for all of his crazy and Schneider looking over his shoulder, would provide solid goaltending. Add the fact that they might be in the worst division in hockey, and they're guaranteed a high playoff spot.
How they did: 1st in the West, and the President's Trophy with 111 points. Top 5 in goals scored, with ten guys providing ten or more goals, and top 5 in goals allowed, behind an unreal backup season from Cory Schneider, who is looking more and more ready to replace Luongo.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie, not that it took much brainpower to realize that the Canucks would, yet again, be good.
Washington Capitals
What I thought: 1st in the East.
Why I thought it: This team was supremely deep at the forward position, and Vokoun would fix a lot of the uncertainty in goal. In that division, I figured they had a wide open path to the playoffs.
How they did: 7th in the East, 92 points. After being an elite team for the last few seasons, this team regressed as much as any team in recent history. With a league-average offense, and a below-average defense, this team just squeaked into the playoffs, though they deserve credit for knocking off the defending champs in the first round.
Cookie or Crow: Crow. Wow, did this team ever lose its way. I expect them to be better next season, but that's going to involve figuring out their identity, and fast.
Winnipeg Jets
What I thought: 13th in the East.
Why I thought it: They'd get a boost from being in a new, hockey-crazed city, but it would not be enough to make up for a popgun offense.
How they did: 11th in the East, 84 points. The offense was better than I expected, finishing in the top half of the league, but the defense was an absolute sieve, allowing the fifth most goals in the league.
Cookie or Crow: Cookie. This didn't look like a playoff team, and not even the love of the Winnipeg fans was going to make that happen.
Overall:
15 Cookies
11 Crows
4 Neither
Though I probably shouldn't make this my life's work, things could totally have come out worse. Hopefully I'll improve next season.
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