The AVB Derby: Live-Blogging Spurs-Chelsea

Disclaimer: I'm a Tottenham fan. Have been for a while. My views will, therefore, be somewhat slanted.

Pre-game (day before) thoughts: Liking our chances against Chelsea ok. Most notably, John Terry is going to be out, and I can't imagine that there is a ton of depth on that defense. What I'm most interested to see is the battle in the midfield. Chelsea, who I've seen a fair amount of this season, works a very fast, finesse based game. Spurs have that ability with Bale and Lennon, but the remnants of their midfield choices seem to have   more of a 1994 Knicks sort of feel. Sandro might not be good at much (things like, you know, SOCCER), but he's very physical, and I don't know how much of a beating the smaller Chelsea mids will be able to take. Dembele is equally strong, but actually possesses some skill, and Dempsey can tackle with the best of them. The back line seems like it will be solid, though I'm not sure if Vertonghen will be fast enough at left back to hold off the speedy wingers. And who knows who is gonna start in goal. I'm confident of some result, not sure it's a win.

Immediately pre-game: Welp, so much for that. Bale is out, his lady having gone in to labor (or labour, potentially also the Labour Party) immediately before the game. Dembele is out with an injury. Replacing them are Huddlestone, who shows flashes of competence in a sea of mediocrity and doesn't possess any of Dembele's skill, and Sigurdsson, who has looked pretty much lost this season and has found himself glued to the bench for the beginning of most games. Friedel in goal: the man is solidly 80 years old, but I still feel WAY more confident with him than with Lloris. Let's see how this goes.

Kick-off: My fantasy team has locked (this game features Hazard from Chelsea and Dempsey from Spurs), and we're off.

The Tim Tebow Hater's Argument For Tim Tebow

NOTE: This post proceeds off of the assumption that the Jets have Tim Tebow, rather than trying to justify trading for him in the first place. Given that they traded for him, we all knew this day would come.

Lest ANYONE be confused, I don't like Tim Tebow. The hype is all sorts of misplaced, as he's not good at the one thing that, ostensibly, he's supposed to be good at in his capacity as an NFL quarterback: throwing a football. He's a perfectly good running back; if he was to be installed at that position, he'd be the best white running back since Mike Alstott (one good season from Peyton Hillis, who has been singlehandedly trying to kill my fantasy team, notwithstanding). So why am I about to expend serious time and energy arguing that my beloved Jets should immediately install Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback? The answer is twofold:

The HBAW Index: Ranking the NHL's Backup Goalies, #1-10

We've now reached the critical moment, the best of the best. If the starting goalie for any of these teams were to go down with an injury, once the initial panic wore off, the fanbase would say "Could be worse. At least we have (Insert Name Of Guy Here)." Again, this isn't about the dropoff from the starter, just the ability of the backup to play.  Once more into the breach, dear friends...

The HBAW Index: Ranking The NHL's Backup Goalies, #11-20

When we last left our hero (such as I am), he had gone through the bottom third of the NHL's backup goaltenders. It was a motley crew (Crue?) of prospects and disgraced former starters that I believe we were all happy to leave behind.

Now, we move onto the middle of the pack. Remembering that the rankings are in order of how boned a fanbase would be if suddenly the backup became the starter, these guys are the point where you're worried, but aren't quite jumping up and down on the panic button. Onward!

The HBAW Index: Ranking the NHLs Backup Goalies, #21-30

In case it's not become incredibly obvious, I like lists. There is something about my personality that makes me enjoy categorizing things; I also like sorting laundry. This particular list derives from a post I saw on Twitter from the folks at Blue Seat Blogs (www.blueseatblogs.com), who are making a preseason list of the top 30 goalies in the league. While this is all well and good, and I'll probably write a post arguing with their choices, I decided to approach this from a slightly different angle. Specifically, I ask the question that every hockey fan has asked at some point: In case of injury, How Boned Are We?

If You Want Something Done Right...: Re-Ranking The NFL's Starting QB's

So, about a month ago, my friend Shaun texted me Ron Jaworski's list of the top 30 QBs in football with the missive: Discuss. This triggered two parts of my personality: (1) I don't turn down intellectual challenges, and (2) Unless given a deadline, I procrastinate. So here we are, a month later, and I'm finally ready to take this on. For reference, here is Jaworski's list:

30. Tim Tebow, Jets
29. Blaine Gabbert, Jags
28. Christian Ponder, Vikings
27. Matt Flynn, Seahawks
26. Matt Moore, Dolphins
25. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
23. Mark Sanchez, Jets
22. Matt Cassel, Chiefs
21. Carson Palmer, Raiders
20. Sam Bradford, Rams
19. Andy Dalton, Bengals
18. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans
17. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
16. Alex Smith, 49ers
15. Cam Newton, Panthers
14. Matthew Stafford, Lions
13. Matt Schaub, Texans
12. Michael Vick, Eagles
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
10. Tony Romo, Cowboys
9. Joe Flacco, Ravens
8. Jay Cutler, Bears
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers
6. Ben Rothlisberger, Steelers
5. Eli Manning, Giants
4. Peyton Manning, Broncos
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
2. Drew Brees, Saints
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Instead of just giving my rankings, I'm going to give five guys I think are overrated by Jaws, five guys I think he underrates, and then rank the 30 non-rookie starting QB's. This both seems more complete, and gets me out of talking about Tim Tebow. As a Jet fan, I think this is best for all involved.

Cookies or Crow? My 2011-12 NHL Predictions Revisited

Before the beginning of last season, as those of us who blog are wont to do, I made a set of NHL predictions. This was on my old blog (viewfromrightfield.blogspot.com). Today, I embark on another cliche of online blogging, especially for those without any ideas: revisiting my picks and seeing how they did. As a way of organizing this, I ask whether my pick deserves a cookie, or whether I need to eat crow. Without further ado, and in alphabetical order, my 2011 picks.

Top 10 Mets Starters

This started the way that many things do, as a Twitter argument. The question was simple: Who was the better New York Met, Johan or Pedro? While this got resolved relatively quickly (as its obviously Johan), it led to a more interesting question: Who are the top 10 Mets pitchers of all time?

This is a heck of a question to answer, given that you have to compare eras and different types of pitchers, so I've simplified a little bit. First, this is only going to be about starters, as comparing them to relievers (or comparing relievers given the change in usage) is unlikely to be helpful; though, for the record, Franco is the best and everyone else is light years behind. Second, to be eligible, you need to have pitched at least 450 innings. This means R.A. Dickey is eligible, but Jonathan Niese is not. With a nod to @jenconnic, @8kpower, and Baseball Reference, here we go.

#1: Tom Seaver
Absolute no brainer. Tom Terrific is the all time leader in pretty much every counting stat: IP, Wins, Strikeouts, SHO. The more shocking thing, and the one that sets him apart, is that he's also the all time leader in ERA and WHIP. To be that good for that many innings is truly rare.

#2: Dwight Gooden
Another less than controversial choice. Pretty much every list you're going to find on the topic will have Seaver first and Doc second. But just because it's cliche doesn't make it wrong. Doc is 2nd all time in WAR and K's, and his 1985 season is one of the best in the history of baseball. The only guys to have better seasons since 1960 are Gibson (playing on a higher mound), Pedro, and Maddux. Pretty elite company.

#3: Sid Fernandez
Now we're getting into more controversial territory; theres a pretty big gulf between the top two and everyone else. El Sid's counting stats are good: 5th in Wins, 4th in Strikeouts, but in each of those categories, the guys ahead of him pitched significantly more innings. The average stats are what puts him here: 3rd in OBP against, 3rd in K/9, 2nd in BAA, and only Nolan Ryan gave up fewer H/9 (and in 1/3 of the innings). Add a Series ring to that, and he's a solid choice to round out the top 3.

#4: Al Leiter
We all knew Leiter was good, but it was easy to overlook how good. Most of his stats are just solid: he's top 10 in wins and strikeouts, but falls well outside the top ten in ERA and WHIP. Its the advanced stats that give Leiter the edge. He's 4th among Mets starters in ERA+, and has the 4th best career WAR, despite pitching over 800 fewer innings than anyone above him on the list. Add a bunch of very gutsy performances for some successful teams, and he JUST edges out...

#5 Johan Santana
Last night's forgettable outing was Johan's 100th career start as a Met. His 99th was pretty memorable as well. But Johan's impact has been more than just the no-no. Already he ranks 8th all time in WAR, and he's pitched over 500 fewer innings than David Cone, the next guy above him. His averages are unbelievable: top 10 all time in ERA and WHIP, plus the Mets win 60% of his starts (and he has been on some bad teams). Just think how insane his numbers would be had he stayed healthy. Suffice it to say that the deal that brought him might be the most lopsided in Mets history.

#6 Rick Reed
My personal favorite Mets pitcher of all time. Didn't get a starting job until age 32, but made up for lost time. Twice an All-Star, and some pretty impressive numbers. What stands out is the control: he ranks top 40 in baseball history in BB/9 and K/BB ratio. But among Met pitchers, his WAR is a standout: he's #9 all time, higher than Ron Darling, who pitched nearly double the innings. An excellent pickup, and severely underrated.

#7 Jon Matlack
Matlack is an interesting one; I'd never heard of him before I embarked on this assignment. He threw a ton of innings for some pretty bad teams, hence his .500 lifetime record. But his ERA, ERA+, Ks, and WHIP are all top 10. If he'd had better players behind him, he'd probably be higher on the list.

#8 David Cone
A mainstay of the early 90s Mets, Cone's place on the list comes from a bunch of numbers that are somewhere between 5th and 10th overall: Ks, ERA, BAA, and WAR. The number that does jump out, and what puts him this high is his K/9, which is higher than any pitcher in Mets history, Nolan Ryan included. An above-average Met to be sure, but not enough to pass any of the guys ahead of him.

#9 Jerry Koosman
Putting Koosman this low feels like it might be controversial. As a Mets fan, you hear a lot about Seaver and Koosman in the late 60s and early 70s. However, the main thing that Koosman has going for him is his longevity. He pitched more innings for the team than anyone except Seaver, and this has led to high totals in the counting stats. However, his BAA, WHIP, and ERA+ are all outside the top 10. While the longevity is impressive, the overall package doesn't measure up.

#10 Bret Saberhagen
This was a heck of a spot to fill. Glavine got some consideration, as his WAR is #10 all time, as did Pedro. However, Saberhagen beats them out due to some stellar performances on some bad early 90's teams. His ERA+ is 5th all time, better than either Leiter or Gooden. He's also the best control pitcher the team has ever had: he's the all time leader in WHIP, BB/9, and K/BB ratio.

That wraps it up, but let me know in the comments if you disagree.

Reboot

Hey all. I've decided to get back into blogging. While I'm PAINFULLY aware that this never lasts (See my LiveJournal, or my last blog), there's something comforting about having somewhere to say things. Even if nobody's listening. Plus, you don't get the odd looks from people that you'd get if you were ACTUALLY talking to nobody (though Bluetooths (Blueteeth?) have changed this; you can't just assume someone is crazy because they appear to be talking to themselves).

That said, here's a quick intro:

Who Are You: I'm Brad. After growing up in Brooklyn, NY, 4 years of college in Chicago, and 3 of law school in DC, I'm working as an attorney and living in Virginia with my very tolerant girlfriend of almost five years, our cat Machiavelli (Ellie for short), and our dog Callie (named either after Sara Ramirez' character on Greys Anatomy or Rangers captain Ryan Callahan, depending on who you ask).

What's With The Name: In the early 2000s, the Rangers had a goalie named Dan Blackburn. He was supposed to be the wave of the future, but succumbed to a nerve injury in his shoulder. He came back and played at the 2012 Alumni Game, using two blockers (or waffleboards) instead of a blocker and a glove. This was a little unorthodox, but effective, and what better model for a new blog...

Why Should I Read This: I'm a die-hard and long-suffering sports fan, mostly because I went the Mets/Jets/Rangers route, rather than Yankees/Giants/Devils. If there is a major sport out there, I likely have some opinion on it. Hopefully, these opinions are both entertaining and reasonable (traits that are occasionally lacking among many sports fans).